Industry Reports

Deutsche Bank Reports Summaries

080208 Deutsch Bank Report - Dr. Paper's Weekly Wrap Up (2/8/08)

Deutsche Bank - Equity Research

* Virtually all major players have announced $50/ton containerboard hike for early March. The exception = Weyerhaeuser. We can't recall prices ever rising in a recessionary environment. But, we've never seen a slowdown marked by tight supply/demand, a weak US$ & rising input costs.

* Q4 earnings reports? The "best of the bunch" this past week = International Paper. Internal initiatives appear to be creating traction. The big risks for IP are: (1) the economy, (2) rebound in the US$.

* "Wood's no good." At least during '08. Weyerhaeuser's wood op's lost $215MM in Q4. Lumber & panel prices have continued trending downward in Q1. More closures look inevitable. Bigger moves to consolidate & rational capacity seem probable.